Outsmarting Outbreaks
Austin-developed measles calculator used nationwide to predict risks and protect communities
As a measles outbreak emerged in Gaines County during February, Austin Public Health (APH) and UT Austin experts responded quickly to create a tool to forecast measles spread within schools. It used school vaccination rates and other data to determine likely outcomes in the event of an outbreak.
Recognizing the risk measles poses, APH reached out to Lauren Ancel Meyers, professor of integrative biology, population health and statistics, and data science at UT, and Nicholas Reich, professor of biostatistics at the University of Massachusetts Amherst.
They mobilized a response through epiENGAGE, a U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention-supported network of 100 collaborators from public health and academia. The effort, which includes leaders from TACC, formed to ensure decision-makers have reliable, data-driven tools to prepare for and respond to deadly disease outbreaks.
Within just a few weeks, epiENGAGE launched the Measles Outbreak Simulator, which uses a mathematical model to simulate 1,000 outbreak scenarios. The initial settings in the calculator assume no interventions (e.g., closing schools or limiting close contact) and projects the probability of outbreaks of 10 or more cases.
“We’ve spent decades building tools that put data and science in the hands of the people who need it most — national and local leaders, government agencies, schools, and families,” said Meyers, who developed the tool with her UT team in partnership with TACC, the CDC, and public health departments across the U.S. “This calculator helps decision-makers nationwide understand measles risks and take actions that protect their communities.”
A Prolific Tool for Public Health
The epiENGAGE Measles Outbreak Simulator was quickly adopted by public health leaders in large cities such as New York, Dallas, Houston, and San Antonio, as well as statewide in Texas, Massachusetts, and Illinois.
We’ve spent decades building tools that put data and science in the hands of the people who need it most.
As of mid-2025, all 50 states and more than 60 countries have accessed the calculator. Planned updates will add features such as modeling health care system burden and active outbreak response.
It runs on powerful supercomputers at TACC, but states can host and customize their own versions.
“TACC has been an essential partner in developing, launching, and maintaining this useful tool,” Meyers said. “For nearly 20 years, TACC has supported our efforts to build the next generation of outbreak response and pandemic preparedness systems providing the computing power, technical expertise, and development infrastructure needed to turn ideas into real-world public health solutions.”
Beyond measles, epiENGAGE is also launching a local forecasting tool for influenza, allowing cities, not just states, to predict flu activity more precisely.
“Most flu surveillance and forecasting happen at the state level, but as we saw during COVID, what’s happening in one part of Texas may not reflect another,” said Meyers, who advised Austin city and health authorities during the pandemic. “This new city-level tool helps predict when and where seasonal and/or pandemic flu will surge — supporting individual risk decisions, hospital planning, and public health response.”
Whatever emerges, epiEngage will be prepared.